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Recent Observation / Data |
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Interpretation & Impact |
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| Inventory/Supply |
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Inventory has surged to levels not seen in years. In February, Orlando area inventory hit ~12,411 homes (6.76 months supply) — the highest since around 2014. In July, Central Florida had ~13,557 active listings. Regions beyond Orlando (e.g. Marion County) saw inventory increases of 40%+ year-over-year. |
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The market is shifting toward a more balanced or even buyer-favored environment in many submarkets. Sellers no longer enjoy automatic scarcity leverage in many areas.
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| Home Prices /Price Pressure |
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Some cooling or mild declines are beginning. Florida statewide single-family median dipped ~3.5% in June 2025. In Orlando, home value growth year-over-year is flipping to negative (≈ 1.9% in some data sets). Central Florida’s median sale price is often reported around $405,000 with modest gains year-to-date (~2.3%) in certain areas. |
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After years of rapid appreciation, the market is entering a period of price stabilization or moderate downward adjustment. Buyers are pushing back more, and over‑priced homes are more likely to be discounted. |
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| Days on Market/Time to Contract |
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Time to contract and days on market are lengthening. In Orlando, median time to contract rose to ~27 days (from ~23) in 2025. In Marion County, median time to contract jumped to 93 days in June. In “resort corridor” areas, average days on market reached ~110 days in September 2025. |
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The pace of sales is slowing. Buyers can be more deliberate; sellers must optimize pricing, presentation, and patience.
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| Sales Volume/Deal Activity |
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In March 2025, Orlando‑area closed sales were ~2,623, nearly flat year-over-year. Tampa area had slight declines in closed sales. Some growth in markets like Daytona (e.g. +3.4% in March) was also observed.
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Overall, activity is more mixed. Some areas still see demand, others lag. The strong momentum of earlier years is stabilizing.
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| Mortgage Rates/Affordability/Costs |
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Mortgage rates in the region are ~6.4%–6.5%, with modest downward movement from earlier peaks. Insurance costs, property taxes and carrying costs are rising pressures, especially in Florida.
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Elevated borrowing costs limit how much buyers can stretch. High running costs (insurance, taxes) further squeeze margins. |
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| Submarket Variance/Local Nuance |
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Some counties (e.g. Marion, Citrus) show slower price growth or slight declines; smaller, rural markets have seen more inventory and longer marketing times. Resort / tourism‑adjacent areas show very high days on market (e.g. ~110 days) and slow sales. |
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Conditions vary widely. Urban cores, good school zones, transit-accessible areas or high-demand neighborhoods may still outperform. |
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| Outlook/Forecast |
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Many forecasts expect moderate, sustained growth or flat to slight declines over the next 6–12 months, depending on interest rate movements, cost pressures, and demand from migration. Some sources say the market is “cooling but stable” with inventory acting as a moderating force. |
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The market is entering a “new normal” phase: not boom times but not collapse. Strategic pricing and good condition will be key.
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